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Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl... And Why It Might Flop.

Okay, though the buzz on the Internet is solid, I still think "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" might flop. It really has no bankable elements--meaning, nothing that fits the trends of recent blockbusters that made them successful like the super-hero element, cgi driven action-adventure component, or even the fantasy element like the beloved "Lord of the Rings" books. There isn't a ready-made fan base like you have with comic books or with "Lord of the Rings." There are no bankable stars. That's a big mistake as well. Frankly, there's not enough there to bring in the kiddies (16-20) demographic, who drive the market. So the question is: Who cares about pirates? Well, here's how some of the more recent pirate movies faired:


  • "The Island" (1980), $15.7 million. Michael Caine starred as a reporter tracking modern day pirates who terrorize vacationers.

  • "The Pirate Movie" (1982), $7.9 million. Pop-rock version of Gilbert and Sullivan's musical "The Pirates of Penzance" with Kristy McNichol and Christopher Atkins.

  • "The Ice Pirates," (1984), $14.2 million. Robert Urich and Anjelica Houston starred in this comedic sci-fi story of smugglers in a futuristic world where water is a precious commodity.

  • "The Goonies" (1985), $61.3 million. Adventure story with group of modern youths (among them Sean Astin, Josh Brolin, Corey Feldman and Martha Plimpton) hunting for hidden treasure in caverns booby-trapped by the long-dead pirate One-Eyed Willie.

  • "Pirates" (1986), $1.6 million. Roman Polanski directed Walter Matthau as crusty Captain Red searching for gold.

  • "Cutthroat Island" (1995), $10 million. Renny Harlin directed then-wife Geena Davis in this big-budget swashbuckling dud, one of the biggest flops in movie history.

  • "Muppet Treasure Island" (1996), $34.3 million. Kermit the Frog, Miss Piggy and actor Tim Curry (as Long John Silver) in this comic retelling of Robert Louis Stevenson's pirate novel.

  • "Treasure Planet" (2001), $38.1 million. Disney's sci-fi version of Stevenson's story about a young boy and a mutinous pirate named Silver, who has a mechanical arm, on a quest through space for hidden riches.

    Now, the one thing that could save the movie is its marketing campaign, which has been very effective, and the fact that it might be a pretty good flick. The screenwriters involved include Terry Rossio and Ted Elliott who are about as good as it gets. We'll see...

    -- Chris


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