Academy Award Predictions
February 12th, 2002
Performance by an actor in a leading role:
Russell Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind"
Sean Penn in "I Am Sam"
Will Smith in "Ali"
Denzel Washington in Training Day
Tom Wilkinson in In The Bedroom
Two surprises here: Will Smith and Sean Penn. Im particularly surprised by Penns nomination. The Academy likes him -- he was nominated not that long ago for SWEET AND LOWDOWN -- but I AM SAM wasnt that well-liked and I didnt really think it was in the running.
Tom Wilkinson is the other surprise.
Its a bit of a disappointment that Penn getting a nom pushes Billy Bob Thornton out of the picture for THE MAN WHO WASNT THERE. Thats as good of an example of someone creating their own character as youre likely to see.
The good news: Denzel got recognized for TRAINING DAY.
I think Denzel should win, but it will go to Mr. Crowe (again).
Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Jim Broadbent in "Iris"
Ethan Hawke in "Training Day"
Ben Kingsley in "Sexy Beast"
Ian McKellen in "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" (New Line)
Jon Voight in "Ali"
Ethan Hawke?! Wow, theres something that no one predicted. Thats totally out of left field -- and, to be honest, if they were going to nominate a person who had no buzz going in, it should have been Tony Shalhoub for THE MAN WHO WASNT THERE.
Ian McKellens nomination proves that the Academy is grossly kneejerk.
Look for Ben Kingsley winning deservedly.
Performance by an actress in a leading role:
Halle Berry in "Monster's Ball"
Judi Dench in "Iris"
Nicole Kidman in "Moulin Rouge"
Sissy Spacek in "In the Bedroom"
Ren� Zellweger in "Bridget Jones's Diary"
They had to give it to Dench, huh? Punks! They had to give it to Kidman and Berry, didnt they? Let me ask an honest question: did anyone buy Kidman in ROUGE? I didnt. I thought she looked stiff and uncomfortable.
Kudos for the nod of the anciently-released JONES (Renee might not deserve to win, but she definitely earns recognition).
Sissy Spacek continues her trend of winning and takes the prize here, too.
My question here is: Where in the hell is Naomi Watts? If theyre going to reach back and award Renee, if theyre going to do the obvious thing and nominate Dench, Berry and Kidman -- they couldnt find room for the single most amazing performance of the year? Sometimes these awards are really frustrating, because theyre not based on your work alone. To quote a smart man: pedigree is for dogs.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role:
Jennifer Connelly in "A Beautiful Mind"
Helen Mirren in "Gosford Park"
Maggie Smith in "Gosford Park"
Marisa Tomei in "In the Bedroom"
Kate Winslet in "Iris"
Id love to see Mirren take it (shes a favorite of mine), but this is a done deal: Jennifer Connelly without question. Its a lock.
Achievement in cinematography:
AM�IE - Bruno Delbonnel
BLACK HAWK DOWN - Slawomir Idziak
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING - Andrew Lesnie
THE MAN WHO WASN'T THERE - Roger Deakins
MOULIN ROUGE - Donald M. McAlpine
If Roger Deakins doesnt win -- and I know its easy to be showy in black and white -- itll be a crime. His work was so beautiful it looked good enough to eat.
Achievement in directing:
A BEAUTIFUL MIND - Ron Howard
BLACK HAWK DOWN - Ridley Scott
GOSFORD PARK - Robert Altman
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING - Peter Jackson
MULHOLLAND DRIVE - David Lynch
Does it make up for all the mistakes that Lynch got nominated? Almost. But not really, because he has a better chance of getting a one-hundred-million-dollar budget before hed win.
I think they should have lopped off either Jackson or Scott and given it to the Coen brothers. Or Chris Nolan.
Wont matter in the end: this award is Howards. Too bad Lynch is most deserving.
Best motion picture of the year:
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
GOSFORD PARK
IN THE BEDROOM
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE
I guess whoever got nominated around BEAUTIFUL MIND was just getting a pat on the back, because the award is almost certainly that films.
But why MOULIN ROUGE over THE MAN WHO WASNT THERE or MULHOLLAND DRIVE or MEMENTO?
Everyone knows ROUGE wont win, but there were so many other superior movies (especially the three mentioned above and WITH A FRIEND LIKE HARRY), and one wonders why theyd hold up a movie that was a failed experiment.
Screenplay based on material previously produced or published:
A BEAUTIFUL MIND - written by Akiva Goldsman
GHOST WORLD - written by Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff
IN THE BEDROOM - written by Rob Festinger and Todd Field
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING - written by Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson
SHREK - written by Ted Elliott & Terry Rossio and Joe Stillman and Roger S.H. Schulman
It was awesome to include GHOST WORLD. It isnt much, but at least we know the Academy was aware of it.
Giving the nom to SHREK might have been a little too much, but, as with the best picture nominations, this is all for BEAUTIFUL MIND.
Screenplay written directly for the screen:
AM�IE - written by Guillaume Laurant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet. Dialogue by Guillaume Laurant
GOSFORD PARK - written by Julian Fellowes
MEMENTO - written by Christopher Nolan. Story by Jonathan Nolan
MONSTER'S BALL - written by Milo Addica & Will Rokos
THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS - written by Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson
The screenwriting nominations are always the dumping ground, and that was never more true than this year.
AMELIE, MONSTERS BALL, ROYAL TENNENBAUMS -- these do not belong here. Thats particularly true of the last title. This is the Academys attempt at hip.
Now Im confused: how is it that Nolans script is suddenly original? Story by Jonathan Nolan? It was a published short story. Nolan has talked about using his brothers short story for two years.
Is it because Nolan wrote his script concurrently with the writing of the story?
I dont know. What this does lead to is an ease for the voters: now they can give Goldsman an award for his MIND script and Nolan for MEMENTO, a film that was otherwise shut out here (which makes sense, because the other two daring films, THE MAN WHO WASNT THERE and MULHOLLAND DRIVE, are also absent for the most part).
Look for these Academy Awards to be the most boring in years. Itll be fun to see all the inane headlines the next day, each incorporating Beautiful in the title. Example: Howards film Beautiful at Oscars.
Rons mistruth of a mans life takes the cake.
But its not for us to whine. At least we have the experience of the movies that merited but didnt get nominated.
-- Darwin Mayflower (darwinmayflower@yahoo.com)
Russell Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind"
Sean Penn in "I Am Sam"
Will Smith in "Ali"
Denzel Washington in Training Day
Tom Wilkinson in In The Bedroom
Two surprises here: Will Smith and Sean Penn. Im particularly surprised by Penns nomination. The Academy likes him -- he was nominated not that long ago for SWEET AND LOWDOWN -- but I AM SAM wasnt that well-liked and I didnt really think it was in the running.
Tom Wilkinson is the other surprise.
Its a bit of a disappointment that Penn getting a nom pushes Billy Bob Thornton out of the picture for THE MAN WHO WASNT THERE. Thats as good of an example of someone creating their own character as youre likely to see.
The good news: Denzel got recognized for TRAINING DAY.
I think Denzel should win, but it will go to Mr. Crowe (again).
Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Jim Broadbent in "Iris"
Ethan Hawke in "Training Day"
Ben Kingsley in "Sexy Beast"
Ian McKellen in "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" (New Line)
Jon Voight in "Ali"
Ethan Hawke?! Wow, theres something that no one predicted. Thats totally out of left field -- and, to be honest, if they were going to nominate a person who had no buzz going in, it should have been Tony Shalhoub for THE MAN WHO WASNT THERE.
Ian McKellens nomination proves that the Academy is grossly kneejerk.
Look for Ben Kingsley winning deservedly.
Performance by an actress in a leading role:
Halle Berry in "Monster's Ball"
Judi Dench in "Iris"
Nicole Kidman in "Moulin Rouge"
Sissy Spacek in "In the Bedroom"
Ren� Zellweger in "Bridget Jones's Diary"
They had to give it to Dench, huh? Punks! They had to give it to Kidman and Berry, didnt they? Let me ask an honest question: did anyone buy Kidman in ROUGE? I didnt. I thought she looked stiff and uncomfortable.
Kudos for the nod of the anciently-released JONES (Renee might not deserve to win, but she definitely earns recognition).
Sissy Spacek continues her trend of winning and takes the prize here, too.
My question here is: Where in the hell is Naomi Watts? If theyre going to reach back and award Renee, if theyre going to do the obvious thing and nominate Dench, Berry and Kidman -- they couldnt find room for the single most amazing performance of the year? Sometimes these awards are really frustrating, because theyre not based on your work alone. To quote a smart man: pedigree is for dogs.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role:
Jennifer Connelly in "A Beautiful Mind"
Helen Mirren in "Gosford Park"
Maggie Smith in "Gosford Park"
Marisa Tomei in "In the Bedroom"
Kate Winslet in "Iris"
Id love to see Mirren take it (shes a favorite of mine), but this is a done deal: Jennifer Connelly without question. Its a lock.
Achievement in cinematography:
AM�IE - Bruno Delbonnel
BLACK HAWK DOWN - Slawomir Idziak
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING - Andrew Lesnie
THE MAN WHO WASN'T THERE - Roger Deakins
MOULIN ROUGE - Donald M. McAlpine
If Roger Deakins doesnt win -- and I know its easy to be showy in black and white -- itll be a crime. His work was so beautiful it looked good enough to eat.
Achievement in directing:
A BEAUTIFUL MIND - Ron Howard
BLACK HAWK DOWN - Ridley Scott
GOSFORD PARK - Robert Altman
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING - Peter Jackson
MULHOLLAND DRIVE - David Lynch
Does it make up for all the mistakes that Lynch got nominated? Almost. But not really, because he has a better chance of getting a one-hundred-million-dollar budget before hed win.
I think they should have lopped off either Jackson or Scott and given it to the Coen brothers. Or Chris Nolan.
Wont matter in the end: this award is Howards. Too bad Lynch is most deserving.
Best motion picture of the year:
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
GOSFORD PARK
IN THE BEDROOM
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
MOULIN ROUGE
I guess whoever got nominated around BEAUTIFUL MIND was just getting a pat on the back, because the award is almost certainly that films.
But why MOULIN ROUGE over THE MAN WHO WASNT THERE or MULHOLLAND DRIVE or MEMENTO?
Everyone knows ROUGE wont win, but there were so many other superior movies (especially the three mentioned above and WITH A FRIEND LIKE HARRY), and one wonders why theyd hold up a movie that was a failed experiment.
Screenplay based on material previously produced or published:
A BEAUTIFUL MIND - written by Akiva Goldsman
GHOST WORLD - written by Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff
IN THE BEDROOM - written by Rob Festinger and Todd Field
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING - written by Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson
SHREK - written by Ted Elliott & Terry Rossio and Joe Stillman and Roger S.H. Schulman
It was awesome to include GHOST WORLD. It isnt much, but at least we know the Academy was aware of it.
Giving the nom to SHREK might have been a little too much, but, as with the best picture nominations, this is all for BEAUTIFUL MIND.
Screenplay written directly for the screen:
AM�IE - written by Guillaume Laurant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet. Dialogue by Guillaume Laurant
GOSFORD PARK - written by Julian Fellowes
MEMENTO - written by Christopher Nolan. Story by Jonathan Nolan
MONSTER'S BALL - written by Milo Addica & Will Rokos
THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS - written by Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson
The screenwriting nominations are always the dumping ground, and that was never more true than this year.
AMELIE, MONSTERS BALL, ROYAL TENNENBAUMS -- these do not belong here. Thats particularly true of the last title. This is the Academys attempt at hip.
Now Im confused: how is it that Nolans script is suddenly original? Story by Jonathan Nolan? It was a published short story. Nolan has talked about using his brothers short story for two years.
Is it because Nolan wrote his script concurrently with the writing of the story?
I dont know. What this does lead to is an ease for the voters: now they can give Goldsman an award for his MIND script and Nolan for MEMENTO, a film that was otherwise shut out here (which makes sense, because the other two daring films, THE MAN WHO WASNT THERE and MULHOLLAND DRIVE, are also absent for the most part).
Look for these Academy Awards to be the most boring in years. Itll be fun to see all the inane headlines the next day, each incorporating Beautiful in the title. Example: Howards film Beautiful at Oscars.
Rons mistruth of a mans life takes the cake.
But its not for us to whine. At least we have the experience of the movies that merited but didnt get nominated.
-- Darwin Mayflower (darwinmayflower@yahoo.com)
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